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Posted on September 13 2022

Canada immigration could fill over 50% of Canadian population in 2041

By  Editor
Updated July 25 2023

Highlights: Canada immigration projections till 2041

  • The latest Canada immigration projections are out!
  • The Canadian population could touch 47.7 million in 2041, of which 25 million will be immigrants or their children.
  • The projections for Canada’s demographics released in August 2022 strongly indicate that the Canadian population will be driven by immigration.
  • In 2041, one in four Canadians will be Asian or African by birth.
  • Also in 2041, about two in five Canadians will belong to a racialized group.

If there’s one single big reason for Canada’s demographics to get redefined, it’s Canada immigration. The prediction has already come out that at the present trend of immigration happening in Canada, in 2041, 25 million of the total 47.7 million Canadians will be immigrants or their children.

Who said so?

On August 9, 2022, Statistics Canada’s Center for Demography released some significant projections. These were about Canada immigration and its influence on the Canadian population in 2041.

In view of the Immigration Levels Plan for 2022-2024, these new projections say a lot about the influence of immigration on Canada. The foundation of the projections also takes into consideration the recent developments in Canada’s demography which includes the ones that have a lot to do with the COVID-19 pandemic.

StatsCan, even has population projections for several racialized groups for Canada, Canadian provinces and territories, and each of Canada’s sizeable metropolitan areas.

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So, what are the projections for 2041?

As already said, in 2041, the Canadian population is expected to touch 47.7 million out of which 25 million will be immigrants or their children. In percentage, they would occupy 52.4% of the total Canadian population.

It’s expected that in 2041, immigrants will make up 29.1% to 34% of the Canadian population. It will be an impressive percentage to achieve as it would set a new record for the highest proportion of immigrants in the Canadian population since the 1867 Canadian Confederation.

Come 2041, one in four Canadians will be Asian or African by birth.

As per projections for 2041, between 9.9 million and 13.9 million people in Canada will be born in Asia or Africa. In percentage terms, they alone could fill up between 23.1% and 26.9% of the total population of Canada. This will be a big leap from 13.5% in 2016.

In 2041, it’s expected that about two in five Canadians will belong to a racialized group.

By ‘racialized’, it meant that they will form that part of the population that’s directly derived from a visible minority group and is a part of that group. In fact, the population of racialized people in Canada has been increasing steadily through the years.

In 2041, the racialized population in Canada could possibly reach between 16.4 million and 22.3 million. In other words, the population of racialized people in Canada could reach between 38.2% and 43% of the total Canadian population. This percentage was 22.2% in 2016.

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Based on the scenario for demographic projection, it’s expected that a higher proportion of racialized young people will be seen. The proportion of youngsters between the ages of 0 to 14 could be 44% to 49.7%.

Take the population of individuals of working age (I.e., 15 to 64 years). They would make up between 42.1% and 47.3% of the racialized population in 2041. This will be 23.3% higher than the numbers in 2016.

As for the population of people aged 65 or above, the proportion to the total racialized population would be anywhere between 25.4% and 26.7%.

The second generation of people who belong to a racialized population in Canada in 2041 is projected to increase beyond double the number in 2016; from 2.2 million to anywhere between 4.8 million and 6.3 million.

The third generation or more of the racialized population in Canada in 2041, could reach between 770,000 and 867,000 by 2041. In 2016, their population was 283,000.

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Canada to become a nation of contrasts and even more so in the future

With the racialized population staying higher than the rest of the population in CMAs (Census Metropolitan Areas) the socio-cultural mosaic will be far more enriched with a multi-cultural quality to it.

In CMAs in Ontario or in Canada’s central and western parts, the proportion of the racialized population is expected to go above the national average of 41%. These areas include Vancouver, Toronto, Abbotsford–Mission, Calgary, Winnipeg, Edmonton, Windsor, Ottawa–Gatineau (Ontario part), and Regina.

However, in the eastern Canada region, the racialized population size would stay under the national average. This region includes CMAs of Quebec and most of Ontario and other Canadian provinces. This region includes Canada’s rural areas.

*Know your eligibility to immigrate to Canada through Y-Axis Canada Immigration Points Calculator.

Montréal, Toronto, and Vancouver will have more concentration of immigrants in 2041.

It’s estimated that in 2041, most of the immigrants would continue to reside in a CMA. Of these metros, the concentration of immigrants will be maximum in Montréal, Toronto, and Vancouver.

In 2041, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) would keep up its status of being Canada’s most populous CMA. The GTA will be home to the largest chunk of the immigrant population.

If you are willing to migrate to Canada, talk to Y-Axis, the leading immigration and career consultant in the UAE.

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